Back on January 20, 2026, the Smart Money Portfolio added shares of Ekso Bionics Holdings (EKSO) at $8.85 per share. The thesis was straightforward: a small-cap medical robotics company with real product revenue and an identifiable market. Nothing exotic.

What happened next had nothing to do with the original thesis.

What Actually Happened

On May 5, 2026, Ekso Bionics completed a reverse merger with Applied Digital Corporation’s cloud business. The combined entity was renamed ChronoScale Corporation, trading under the new ticker CHRN, with a new CUSIP (170924104). Your share count did not change. What changed was everything else.

Here is the structure of the deal:

• ChronoScale issued approximately 138 million new shares to Applied Digital

• Legacy EKSO shareholders collectively now own roughly 3% of the new company

• Applied Digital controls the remaining 97%

• The core business has pivoted to GPU-based AI infrastructure and high-performance computing

• The medical exoskeleton business still exists, as a subordinate subsidiary

What many investors may not realize is that “no forced conversion ratio” is not the same as no dilution. Your share count is intact. Your ownership slice of the underlying business shrank to near nothing.

The Market Rewarded the Name Change

CHRN is currently trading around $18.20. That is a gain of approximately 107% from our cost basis of $8.85.

The market is doing what markets do in environments like this one. Slap AI on the name, reframe the story, and watch the multiple expand. We have seen this script before. The late 1990s had its own version. Pets.com was not an anomaly; it was a symptom. Companies that pivoted to dotcom branding captured investor attention long before the fundamentals could catch up -- and then, eventually, the fundamentals caught up.

That observation is not a prediction about CHRN specifically. It is a pattern worth keeping in mind.

The Decision

The original thesis is gone. We no longer own a pure-play medical robotics company. We own a 3% sliver of an AI compute platform controlled by a company that was not the original investment target. The business we underwrote at $8.85 no longer exists in its original form.

At the same time, the gain is real. A 107% return in under four months does not come along often, and letting it erode while waiting to see if the AI narrative holds is not a trade worth making.

Action to Take: Sell all shares of ChronoScale Corporation (CHRN)

The exit price is approximately $18.20. We are taking the gain, closing the position, and moving on. Risk management is not about holding winners until they become stories. It is about recognizing when the original case is gone and the current price is a gift.

We got the gift. Take it.

This trade was available in real time to paid subscribers. The next one will be too."

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Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) was added to the model on January 5 at $8.50 and again on January 26 at $8.55, both entries timed to a weekly chart that was carving out a classic Stage 1 base. The thesis was straightforward: accumulation was building, the 30-week moving average was beginning to turn, and the Smart Money Score was signaling institutional interest…

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On January 5, 2026, the Smart Money system flagged Centene Corporation (CNC) at $43.18. The entry was driven by an accumulation sequence—a pattern that signals institutional buying after a prolonged decline.

The stock closed today at $55.57. That’s a 28.7% gain in four months.

We’re selling.

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Over the past two weeks, I have been in the lab working to integrate everything I apply in the Smart Money Portfolio directly into my TradingView charts. The reason was to have precise control over the process, as opposed to gathering research from a third-party source and then not seeing the same data on the charts I use daily. This also came from a desire to have better control over the outcome.

It came from a simple observation.

The repeatable four-step process I use when researching stocks is the same for every stock. Stocks that pass all four steps are, in theory, similar on day one. But over time, as I analyzed the distribution of returns, I realized this was not the case. Returns were distributed fairly evenly across the bell curve, with fat tails on both sides. The expected right-hand skew was not evident, and that bothered me.

Do not misread that. The portfolio has been ahead of its benchmark since inception, and I believe the process is valid. What I am saying is that buried in that four-step process, there were factors I had not been measuring precisely enough. Factors that caused the broader dispersion of returns I was seeing.

By integrating the Smart Money process directly into TradingView, I now have a much more granular view, and I believe I have identified what would have kept me out of most of the trades that have not positively contributed to the portfolio so far.

The purpose of this article is to explain the framework in plain English.

Step 1: The Stock Must Be Above Its 30-Week Moving Average. No Exceptions.

This comes from the work of Stan Weinstein, a market analyst whose 1988 book Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets remains one of the most practical frameworks ever written for individual investors.

Weinstein observed that stocks move through four distinct stages, and the single most reliable dividing line between a stock worth owning and one to avoid is whether its price is above or below its 30-week moving average.

Think of the 30-week moving average as the stock’s long-term momentum line. It takes 30 weeks of price data and draws a smooth line through the middle. When a stock is above that line, and the line is rising, the stock is in what Weinstein called Stage 2 - a confirmed uptrend. When it is below the line, and the line is falling, it is in Stage 4 - a confirmed downtrend.

This is not complicated. A stock in a confirmed downtrend is fighting gravity. Buying it and hoping it turns around is a low-probability bet, regardless of how cheap it looks or how compelling the story sounds. The 30-week MA is the first filter because it is the most important one. If a stock fails this test, nothing else matters.

*Paid subscribers get the complete four-step framework below -- the specific accumulation signals I now use to screen every candidate before it enters the portfolio, the exact five-row table I check before entering any position, and access to the custom TradingView screener I built to surface these setups automatically each morning across the entire Russell 1000. If you have been thinking about upgrading, this is a good week to do it.*

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The run in Nabors (NBR) shares has been nothing short of incredible.

Nabors was one of the first stocks added to the Smart Money Portfolio back on December 22 at a cost basis of $51.26. Based on today’s opening price of $103.75, this represents the portfolio’s first 100% winner. (LPCN had come close)

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On April 27, KForce, Inc. (KFRC) reported revenue and EPS exceeding guidance, driven by broard-based demand in technology and AI. The results were well received by investors who have bid shares up over $10 in just the past few days.

I am selling half of my shares into this strength. The stock is currently trading around $45.54, representing an approxima…

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On March 23, the setup in agricultural commodities was clear: broad commodities had already moved, and agriculture was still building below a major historical resistance level. That gap was where the opportunity lived.

WEAT has since moved 9%. The trade is not over.

The Input Shock Farmers Cannot Absorb

Urea -- the primary nitrogen input in fertilizer production -- has gone from roughly $355 per metric ton in January to $720.25 today. That is approximately a 103% increase in under four months.

For farmers already operating on compressed margins, an input shock of that magnitude forces hard choices: rotate to less input-intensive crops, reduce planted acreage, or in the worst cases, walk away entirely. Some are doing all three.

When input costs surge across the board, farmers face a simple calculation: plant less, or shift to crops that require fewer inputs. Either decision reduces the supply of nitrogen-dependent crops. Wheat is squarely in that category. Demand does not adjust at the same speed. Supply falls, demand holds, price rises.

The WEAT accumulation pattern reflects this. The chart is not showing distribution. It is showing buying pressure at rising price levels -- the technical signature of a trend in early expansion, not late exhaustion.

The Counterargument

And it’s not hard to see the bear case. A 9% move in six weeks is not nothing. Traders who missed the initial setup will reasonably ask whether the opportunity has passed. There is also an argument that urea prices could stabilize before the next planting cycle.

That argument misses a critical variable. We are in peak planting season right now. Farmers are not waiting to see where urea settles -- they are making acreage decisions today, under current costs. Mother Nature does not offer an extension. Whatever supply destruction is baked into this planting season is already in motion, and it will not be visible in crop data for months.

That is precisely why the price signal in WEAT is moving now.

The following is available to paid subscribers.

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I’m exiting GlobalFoundries (GFS) into strength as it approaches my predefined profit zone.

Risk Context

• Entry: $43.51

• Current: $49.90

• Gain: +14.8%

• Price is now pressing into the original target range near $50-$55

Evidence

• Recent advance has come on uninspiring volume

• No clear signs of institutional accumulation

• Upside beyond $51 exists, but becomes incremental,…

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In yesterday’s trading, Patterson-UTI Energy formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern.

A Bearish Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal chart pattern that signals a potential downward trend, where a small bullish (green/white) candle is followed by a large bearish (red/black) candle that "engulfs" the first, opening higher and closing lower than the prev…

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Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX) is being closed out.

• Entry: $7.70

• Current price: $10.19

• Gain: 32.33%

This is the second time shares of HLX have come into the proximity of our target zone around $10.87. Given the overall weak market structure, I am electing to book profits rather than hold out for the final $0.60 cents.

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Commodities, particularly agriculture, are transitioning from accumulation to early expansion.

This is not a late-cycle chase. It is the phase in which risk is still controlled, and upside begins to expand asymmetrically.

As Tavi Costa put it:

“This is one of the most compelling setups for agricultural commodities I have seen.
Broad commodities appear to be leading the move, while agricultural commodities remain just below a major historical resistance level.”

That last point matters.

Broad commodities have already moved.
Agriculture is still setting up.

That gap is where the opportunity exists.

Risk Context

Most portfolios today are still positioned for:

• Disinflation

• Stable supply chains

• Equity-led leadership

That assumption is starting to crack.

What we are seeing instead:

• Energy re-accelerating

• Supply chains fragmenting

• Input costs rising again

Food sits downstream of all three.

If this continues, agriculture is not optional exposure.
It becomes necessary exposure.

The Setup: Why Agriculture, Why Now

1) Energy is feeding into food

The recent surge in oil is not isolated.

Higher energy prices:

• Increase fertilizer costs

• Raise transportation expenses

• Compress farm margins

Historically, food prices respond with a lag.

Translation:
If energy remains elevated, agriculture is likely underpriced relative to its inputs

2) Supply is more fragile than it looks

Agriculture markets are tightly concentrated:

• Wheat: dominated by Russia and Ukraine

• Corn: heavily reliant on the US and Brazil

• Sugar: driven by Brazil and India

Layer in:

• Weather instability

• Water constraints

• Policy risk (export restrictions)

You do not need a global shortage.
You need a localized disruption in a concentrated system

That is enough to reprice the entire complex.

The Technical Reality: Risk Is Compressing, Not Expanding

This is where the opportunity becomes actionable.

Across multiple agricultural markets, the pattern is consistent:

• Prolonged negative cycles have driven prices into risk-compressed territory

• Selling pressure has been absorbed, not accelerated

• Early signs of accumulation are beginning to appear

• Momentum is stabilizing before price expansion

This is not strength.

It is exhaustion followed by early positioning.

What Actually Matters

Most investors focus on price.

That’s the wrong variable.

Price is the outcome.
We are focused on conditions.

Specifically:

• Where is the market in its cycle

• Has risk already been compressed

• Is capital beginning to accumulate

When those three align, the trade becomes asymmetric.

Not because it is guaranteed,
but because the downside has already been largely expressed

Where Investors Get This Wrong

They wait for confirmation in price.

By the time:

• Breakouts are obvious

• Narratives are widespread

• Momentum is extended

The opportunity has already shifted.

Risk is no longer compressed.
It is expanding.

The Position We Want

We are not chasing strength.

We are positioning into:

• Depressed cycles

• Early accumulation

• Pre-confirmation conditions

That is where:

• Risk can be defined

• Upside begins to compound

• And positioning precedes recognition

Bottom Line

The setup is not about identifying a trend.

It is about recognizing when:

The market has already absorbed the downside,
and capital is beginning to move before price reflects it

That is the phase we are seeing now.

The Edge

This is not a consensus trade.

Most capital is still:

• Anchored to equities

• Expecting disinflation

• Ignoring early commodity strength

That creates the opportunity.

The Counterweight (What Could Break This)

This is not a one-way bet.

Three things would weaken the case:

1) Demand destruction

A sharp global slowdown would reduce:

• Livestock demand

• Biofuel demand

• Industrial usage

Food demand is resilient, but not immune.

2) Supply response

Agriculture can respond faster than other commodities:

• Higher prices incentivize planting

• Brazil, in particular, adjusts quickly

A strong growing season can reverse price pressure.

What the Data Is Showing

The macro backdrop is constructive.
The technical structure is improving.

But neither is actionable on its own.

What matters is whether capital is actually moving.

That’s where the framework becomes critical.

Understanding the setup is one thing.
Seeing where Smart Money is already positioning is another.

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Position Summary

• Current Price: ~$109.66

• Gain: +26.74% from cost basis

• Action: Selling the remaining half

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Our cost basis in Target Corporation is $104.93, giving us roughly a 13% gain at current prices.

However, the macro backdrop is shifting.

The recent surge in energy prices is not trivial. Higher fuel costs act like a tax on the consumer, and historically that pressure shows up quickly in reduced discretionary spending. Retailers are often among the first …

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That is where we are right now.

Market Context

Current conditions remain bearish.

• The S&P 500 Index closed near its weekly low on Friday, a sign that sellers remained in control into the close

  

• Both price and the trend (moving averages) have rolled over.

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Since launching the Smart Money Portfolio in mid‑December, readers know that I have taken a cautious stance. That caution has been deliberate. Today the portfolio remains less than 35% invested—not because opportunities are absent, but because risk management requires paying attention to something far more important than price alone: the structure of the market.

And the structure has been signaling increasing fragility for some time now.

What makes the current environment particularly deceptive is that this fragility has been hidden behind a market that has been dancing around new highs. On the surface, prices appear strong. Beneath the surface, however, a number of cautionary signals have been steadily building.

First, the Market Price Cycle has been warning of an overextended market. Even as stock valuations pushed to all‑time highs, the system printed seven consecutive Risk Alert Sell signals. That kind of persistence in a risk signal rarely appears without consequence.

At the same time, the market has been trading above the Demand Threshold Line for several months. That condition alone can be sustained for a period, but it becomes far more meaningful when it occurs alongside other warnings. In this case, we saw a reversal signal the week of October 7, followed by a Momentum Down signal on November 7.

What has the SPY done since then?

Very little.

Price has essentially done nothing but chop sideways, moving back and forth within a narrow range.

This is important to understand because tops and bottoms are processes—not single events. In the case of market tops, enthusiasm usually remains high even as the internal structure deteriorates. Prices continue to push marginally higher, but it becomes increasingly difficult to drive them significantly further.

Why?

Because distribution begins to take place.

The Smart Money quietly starts reducing exposure while late‑cycle buyers continue to chase what they believe is a strong market. Over time, this distribution offsets new demand. The result is a market that appears strong on the surface but becomes increasingly fragile underneath.

This is how major tops are formed. It is always how it works.

On February 1, I noted that the NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator, using my special market timing configuration, had triggered a sell alert. This is not a signal I take lightly. Historically, it has identified every major market top and bottom since I first began using it in 2006.

When we step back and look at Market Dynamics, we can see another critical development: a widening gap between market dynamics and price. Divergences like this do not last indefinitely. Eventually, price catches up with the underlying reality of the market.

And when it does, the adjustment can happen quickly.

Divergences like this never resolve quietly. They are the market's way of storing potential energy—energy that eventually releases in a directional move. That release began this week.

That is where we are now.

The weekly chart closed below the 30‑week moving average, completing the transition that started with those seven Risk Alert signals.

Futures are well below as I write this report.

Welcome to Stage 4.

For readers familiar with Stage Analysis, this is a meaningful shift. Markets typically move through four primary stages: accumulation, advance, distribution, and decline. During healthy advances—Stage 2—price remains above a rising 30‑week moving average. Pullbacks may occur, but they tend to hold above that line as institutional demand continues to support the trend.

When price begins to break below the 30‑week moving average, especially after an extended advance, it signals that the character of the market is changing.

The trend is no longer being supported the way it was before.

In Stage Analysis terms, this transition signals that the market is moving into Stage 4 — Distribution.

Distribution is the phase where institutional money gradually reduces exposure. It does not typically happen all at once. Instead, it unfolds over time as rallies become weaker, volatility increases, and the market struggles to sustain upside momentum.

This aligns closely with the other signals we have already discussed:

• The seven consecutive Risk Alert Sell signals in the Market Price Cycle
• The Momentum Down signal in November
• The NYSE Bullish Percent sell alert
• The divergence between Market Dynamics and price

Individually, any one of these signals deserves attention. Together, they describe a market environment where risk has been steadily increasing beneath the surface.

Now we are beginning to see that risk reflected in price.

Extreme Valuations Add to the Risks

What makes the current setup even more concerning is that these structural warnings are appearing at the very same time that stock market valuations are sitting at historic extremes.

By nearly every major measure, the market has been priced for perfection.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who once called the ratio "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment".

We have to go back to 1929 to find valuations this unhinged.

Again, none of this means markets move straight down from here. Distribution phases often include sharp rallies that convince investors the bull market has resumed.

But from a risk management perspective, the evidence continues to support the cautious posture we have taken with the Smart Money Portfolio.

How the Iran War Just Delivered an Inflationary Shock to the Global Economy

The Strait of Hormuz - the artery through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows - has become the epicentre of geopolitical escalation following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the assassination of Ali Hosseini Khamenei.

As I write this Sunday evening, oil is trading above $108…up from $92 where it closed Friday.

It does not take a genius to recognize what a shock this is to the global economy.

Oil at these levels is inherently inflationary. It raises input costs across virtually every sector—transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, chemicals. The ripple effects move quickly through supply chains. Companies that were already managing margin pressure now face another significant cost headwind.

But the risk runs deeper than inflation alone.

Oil shocks of this magnitude have the ability to halt industrial production. When energy costs spike suddenly, businesses freeze capital expenditure decisions. Just‑in‑time manufacturing systems become vulnerable. Shipping costs explode. The entire machinery of global commerce seizes up as companies reassess their exposure.

We have seen this movie before.

The 1970s oil crises. The 1990 Gulf War spike. The 2008 run‑up. Each time, markets initially tried to shrug off the energy move—until the economic reality became unavoidable.

This time, the setup may actually be more dangerous.

We are starting from a market that has been flashing seven consecutive Risk Alert Sell signals. A market trading at extreme valuations by every historical measure. A market that is entering a Stage 4 Distribution.

The Iran war and the oil spike are not creating fragility.

They are revealing the fragility that was already there.

And in markets, that revelation process rarely happens gradually. It tends to happen suddenly—when the last remaining buyers step away, and the bid disappears.

That is why risk management matters.

Not because we can predict exactly when or how the adjustment comes—but because we can recognize when the conditions for a significant move are in place. When the structure of the market suggests that the next surprise is more likely to be to the downside than the upside.

The Smart Money Portfolio remains less than 35% invested for exactly this reason.

We did not need to know that rockets would fly this weekend. We only needed to know that the market was priced for perfection while sitting on a foundation of increasing fragility.

Now that fragility is being tested.

This Week’s Smart Money Portfolio Additions

I am holding off from making my normal weekly additions to the portfolio given current events. I believe a waterfall decline is very possible in the coming week, and I simply do not want to put capital at risk.

That said, opportunities are already emerging. Four portfolio holdings have generated Investor Buy signals in the past week. Under normal conditions, I would be increasing position size in each.

There is also a fifth company—one I have been eyeing for weeks and a member of the Dividend Aristocrats—that just triggered an Investor Buy Alert. I would very much like to own it, but I also do not want to get run over in the process. So I will watch how the week unfolds.

Premium members will receive real-time alerts the minute I make any changes.

Everyone, stay safe.

PORTFOLIO UPDATE — MONDAY, MARCH 2, 2026

The market has proven more resilient than the weekend headlines might have suggested.

Yes, geopolitical risks remain elevated. But as the session has unfolded, equities have shrugged off their early losses and oil has trimmed a meaningful portion of its initial gains. Markets, it turns out, are still capable of sur…

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Before We Look at the Portfolio — We Need to Talk About What Happened This Weekend.

You don’t need me to tell you that the world changed on Saturday.

The U.S.-Israel coalition struck Iran. Their Supreme Leader is dead.

Let that sink in for a moment — because the markets certainly will when they open tomorrow.

Here’s what we know: this is a seismic geopolitical event. Here’s what we don’t know: how long these operations continue, who retaliates, and what the second and third-order consequences look like.

And that uncertainty is precisely the problem.

Markets don’t fear bad news. They fear unknown news. They can price in a recession. They can price in a rate hike. What they cannot price in is a conflict with no defined endpoint, no clear escalation ceiling, and no historical playbook that maps cleanly onto this moment.

So what should you expect when trading opens tomorrow?

Two things — almost certainly.

Oil prices will move higher. The Middle East remains the world’s most consequential energy corridor. Any disruption to that supply chain — real or perceived — gets priced in immediately and aggressively.

Equity markets will move lower. Risk-off is the default setting when geopolitical shock hits. Institutional money doesn’t wait for clarity. It reduces exposure first and asks questions later.

This is not a prediction. It’s a pattern — one that has repeated itself across every major geopolitical shock in modern market history.

Now, here’s what separates disciplined investors from everyone else.

Everyone else will react. They’ll watch the red on their screens and make decisions driven by fear, not framework. They’ll sell into panic or freeze entirely — neither of which is a strategy.

We don’t do that here.

The Smart Money Portfolio is built for exactly these moments. Not because we predicted this — no one did — but because the framework we follow doesn’t require prediction. It requires reading what the market is telling us, and responding accordingly.

READING THE TEA LEAVES — AND WHY I’VE BEEN CAUTIOUS FOR WEEKS

This didn’t come out of nowhere.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve been sounding a quiet but deliberate alarm. Not the kind that sends you scrambling to sell everything — but the kind that serious investors learn to respect.

The warning signs were there for those paying attention.

The NYSE bullish percent indicator was flashing fragility beneath what appeared to be a resilient surface. Breadth was deteriorating even as headline indices held their ground — a classic divergence that rarely ends well.

The generals of the market — the megacap technology names that have led this bull run — were beginning to show measurable weakness. When the leaders stop leading, the rest of the market eventually follows. It always does.

In response, I suggested a couple of tactical hedges. If you acted on those, the coming days are likely to validate that decision.

And perhaps most importantly, the Smart Money Portfolio has been sitting at approximately 33% invested. That wasn’t an accident. It wasn’t indecision. It was discipline.

This is a point worth dwelling on for a moment.

Most retail investors feel compelled to be fully invested at all times. Sitting in cash feels like losing. It feels unproductive. But that instinct is exactly what Smart Money exploits. The professionals aren’t always in the market — they’re selective about when the market deserves their capital.

Holding 67% in reserve wasn’t a missed opportunity. Right now, it looks like a war chest.

SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Here’s the nuance that matters most this week.

Smart Money signals don’t exist in a vacuum. Yes, individual stocks can — and do — generate compelling accumulation signals driven entirely by their own catalysts, independent of broader market conditions. That’s the nature of Smart Money behavior. The institutions don’t always wait for the macro to be perfect.

But risk is always contextual.

Even the strongest individual signal carries more weight when the general market is supportive — and more risk when it isn’t. Right now, the general market is anything but supportive. We are walking into Monday morning with a geopolitical shock, elevated uncertainty, and a market that was already showing signs of internal weakness before the weekend’s events.

That changes how I’m approaching this week’s entries.

I have identified a number of stocks that have passed the screening process — names that meet the criteria for inclusion in the Smart Money Portfolio. Under normal conditions, I would be entering those positions at or near Monday’s open without hesitation.

This week is different.

I will be watching first. Entering orders second.

I want to see how the market absorbs the initial shock. I want to see where the Smart Money actually shows up — because in volatile opens, the first thirty minutes often tells you everything you need to know about the day’s true direction.

This is not hesitation born of fear. It is patience born of process.

All paid members will receive a real-time alert the moment I make a move — what I’m buying, at what level, and why. You won’t be left guessing. That’s the commitment.

The stocks under consideration are detailed in the section below.

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The chart shows Berkshire Hathaway sitting on roughly $382 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and Treasury bills. The highest level in its history.

That is not accidental. And it is not inactivity.

When Warren Buffett holds record cash, it usually signals one of two things: the opportunity set is thin relative to price, or risk-adjusted returns do not justify deployment. Buffett is not paid to be fully invested. He is paid to allocate capital when the odds are favorable.

That same discipline applies here.

This week’s update includes two new portfolio additions, with a third name being monitored closely for confirmation. Following last week’s profit-taking, the portfolio remains approximately 33% invested. That is intentional.

Compounding does not come from being fully invested. It comes from being correctly invested.

I remain concerned about the broader market structure. That is why I have recommended maintaining exposure to inverse ETFs in the near term.

Smart Money Buys often move to their own rhythm. But they do not operate in a vacuum. A broad market selloff will still create pressure, even on stronger names.

The goal is not to predict a collapse. The goal is to respect fragility while allowing opportunity to develop.

If market conditions deteriorate further, hedge exposure provides ballast. If conditions stabilize and expand, we are positioned to add selectively.

Risk first. Opportunity second. Always in that order.

Exposure expands when conditions warrant it. Until then, capital is preserved, not forced.

Portfolio Adds & Deletions

Profits Realized. Exposure Reduced. Flexibility Preserved.

Last week was active and disciplined.

• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Sold half at +29%

• Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB) – Fully exited at +24.42%

Two different executions. Same framework.

AKAM: De-Risked, Not Abandoned

We initiated AKAM at 85.88 on December 15.

Ahead of earnings, with price near our target zone and binary risk elevated, we sold half at 108.19. That locked in a 29% gain on the first tranche.

The remaining half is still up 20.4%.

That leaves us with:

• Realized gains in hand

• A live position with a margin of safety

• Defined downside reference

The earnings reaction produced a wide range. The double hit came from guidance and a broader cybersecurity scare tied to industry AI concerns. In my view, much of that second driver was sentiment-driven rather than structural.

We saw a similar indiscriminate selloff in BILL Holdings (BILL) before buyers stepped back in once emotion cleared.

For now:

• Price remains above the original Smart Money Buy signal.

• We are well hedged via partial profit.

• The reaction low provides a clear stop reference.

We are not rushing to exit the remaining half. We will give the market time to show whether this was distribution or an opportunity.

If the structure fails, we exit.
If sponsorship reasserts itself, we participate.

That is asymmetric management.

SPB: Target Reached, Capital Recycled

With SPB, the situation was simpler.

Price approached our predefined objective. Upside efficiency was declining. We exited the full position with a 24.42% gain.

No squeezing for the last dollar.
No hope-based holding.

When risk-reward compresses, we rotate.

Capital is finite—discipline compounds.

New Positions

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Action: Sell entire position in SPB.

We initiated the position on January 26 at $64.69.
Today, as price approaches our predefined take-profit zone, I am closing the trade and locking in a 24% gain.

Why Exit Here?

This was a plan, not a reaction.

The objective was to enter during favorable risk compression and exit as price expanded into a higher-risk zone. T…

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